Watch out for Healthcare, Energy and Financials

Published 05-APR-2019 14:59 P.M.

|

3 minute read

Hey! Looks like you have stumbled on the section of our website where we have archived articles from our old business model.

In 2019 the original founding team returned to run Next Investors, we changed our business model to only write about stocks we carefully research and are invested in for the long term.

The below articles were written under our previous business model. We have kept these articles online here for your reference.

Our new mission is to build a high performing ASX micro cap investment portfolio and share our research, analysis and investment strategy with our readers.


Click Here to View Latest Articles

This big news this week was the Federal Budget along with the RBA meeting on interest rates. Both had the potential to affect our market, but so far neither is raising any alarm bells as the All Ordinaries Index has continued to rise.

What went relatively unnoticed was the fact that market volatility continued to ease and is now reaching its lowest levels since October last year. This is quite interesting given that the market rose this week to 6300 points, yet volatility fell, which is similar to October 2018 when the All Ordinaries Index rose to just above 6,300 points after falling around 4 per cent from the August high. It then fell around 14 per cent into a low last December.

So what does that mean for our market? When volatility starts consolidating sideways for a period of time, it increases the likelihood of a change in the direction of the market. Given the market did not pull back as far as I expected in the past month, but instead continued to make new highs, this could be a sign of a short-term change in direction. If the market continues to rise in the short term, then we will see a larger fall in the second half of the year.

As for the Federal budget, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg released his plans to return the Australian economy to a $7.1 billion surplus in the coming year. The Government’s plans for a stronger economy and a focus on achieving a budget surplus, creating more jobs, lowering taxes and continuing to support essential community services is great news for investors, as this should underpin good economic conditions and, in turn, drive share prices higher.


With an election almost upon us, the stakes are very high for the Liberal Party and Australia, and now is not the time to drop the ball. Having a strong economy and avoiding a recession that has been muted recently relies on having stability, lowering our national debt and getting business moving. There is no doubt businesses have had it tough the past decade following the GFC, a budget that supports business growth is very welcome.

The RBA met this week and decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.5 per cent despite the expectation that they may be lowered. Consumer spending was above expectations, rising 0.8 per cent in February; so this has taken the pressure off the RBA to lower rates for now; however, a rate cut is still very much on the cards in 2019.

Looking at the sectors, Information Technology and Materials where the top performers this past week up around 2%. Utilities and Energy, on the other hand, were the bottom performers down around 1 per cent.

In the top 100 stocks, Fortescue Metal was again the top performer up over 8%. Tabcorp, BlueScope, IOOF, AMP and Iluka Resources where all up over 4%. Those not so lucky included Northern Star Resources, Newcrest Mining and Scentre Group, which were all down around 3%.

So what do we expect in the market?
Given that market volatility is down, we need to expect changes to unfold, which could mean one of two things. Either the All Ordinaries index will rise up until early May to between 6500 and 6700 points and then fall into a low in May or June.

Alternatively, the current move up will stop over the next week or so and the market will fall away into a low in early May and possibly June with the fall likely to be around 8% in price. Either way, the longer term outlook is bullish for our market. The sectors to watch in the second half of this year are Healthcare, Energy and Financials.

Dale Gillham is Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also author of Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in book stores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au



General Information Only

S3 Consortium Pty Ltd (S3, ‘we’, ‘us’, ‘our’) (CAR No. 433913) is a corporate authorised representative of LeMessurier Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 296877). The information contained in this article is general information and is for informational purposes only. Any advice is general advice only. Any advice contained in this article does not constitute personal advice and S3 has not taken into consideration your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Please seek your own independent professional advice before making any financial investment decision. Those persons acting upon information contained in this article do so entirely at their own risk.

Conflicts of Interest Notice

S3 and its associated entities may hold investments in companies featured in its articles, including through being paid in the securities of the companies we provide commentary on. We disclose the securities held in relation to a particular company that we provide commentary on. Refer to our Disclosure Policy for information on our self-imposed trading blackouts, hold conditions and de-risking (sell conditions) which seek to mitigate against any potential conflicts of interest.

Publication Notice and Disclaimer

The information contained in this article is current as at the publication date. At the time of publishing, the information contained in this article is based on sources which are available in the public domain that we consider to be reliable, and our own analysis of those sources. The views of the author may not reflect the views of the AFSL holder. Any decision by you to purchase securities in the companies featured in this article should be done so after you have sought your own independent professional advice regarding this information and made your own inquiries as to the validity of any information in this article.

Any forward-looking statements contained in this article are not guarantees or predictions of future performance, and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond our control, and which may cause actual results or performance of companies featured to differ materially from those expressed in the statements contained in this article. S3 cannot and does not give any assurance that the results or performance expressed or implied by any forward-looking statements contained in this article will actually occur and readers are cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

This article may include references to our past investing performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of our future investing performance.

 

Discover Small Cap
Biotech Stocks

Join thousands of other Investors following our stock commentary for Free

X