Last Price:
Date of Initial Coverage
02-Dec-20
Initial Entry Price
$0.014
Returns from Initial Entry
63%
PUR increases the size and scale of its lithium project to a level that warrants putting it into production. We are hoping this re-rates the company to a market cap of >$1bn (similar to what peer company Argosy achieved).
Opened: 14-Dec-2022
Shares Held at Open: 25,133,333
Pursuit Minerals (ASX: PUR) is developing an advanced lithium brine project in Argentina.
PUR’s project is located inside the South American ‘lithium triangle’, a region home to ~ 50% of the world's lithium production and lithium majors like SQM and Albemarle.
Lithium is recognised as a critical raw material by the USA, European Union, India, Japan and Australia because of its importance in the lithium-ion battery supply chain.
These batteries are required to power electric vehicles (EVs) AND to store energy for managing the ongoing global energy crisis.
With lithium brines responsible for almost half of the world's lithium production, PUR offers us exposure to a strong macro theme with a differentiated project style.
Project sits inside an already giant resource
PUR’s project sits inside an already established foreign resource estimate of 2.1mt lithium carbonate equivalent. PUR’s ground covers ~9,260 hectares inside and on the perimeter of the larger Rio Grande salar (salt lake) in Argentina which measures ~27,500 hectares.
Exploration upside
Most of the drilling in the Rio Grande salar (salt lake) has been down to depths of ~100m. Lithium mineralisation is interpreted to extend down to depths of ~500m in depth leaving plenty of exploration upside for PUR to chase.
Strong management team
Team includes the founding chairman of $1.7BN Syrah Resources - Tom Eadie, and Kyle Stevenson was also the founder of Millennial Lithium which was eventually sold for CAD$491M.
Located inside Argentina’s “lithium triangle”
PUR’s project sits in a region home to ~50% of global lithium supply, dubbed the “lithium triangle” of Argentina. The region also hosts majors like Allkem (capped at $8.3BN), Albemarle (capped at $45BN), SQM (capped at $39BN) and Rio Tinto ($172BN) hold lithium projects. This brings with it potential future consolidation opportunities.
Low market cap relative to advanced peers
Post acquisition PUR will have a fully diluted market cap of ~$31M, which is low compared to other lithium brine players Argosy Minerals ($828M).
Objective #1: Drilling program to establish maiden JORC resource estimate
Our bull/base/bear case expectations for the maiden JORC resource is as follows:
Bull case = >100kt lithium carbonate equivalent.
Base case = 50-100kt lithium carbonate equivalent.
Bear case = <50kt lithium carbonate equivalent.
Milestones
Drilling program commencement
Drilling program results
Maiden JORC resource estimate
Objective #2: Pilot plant construction to show recovery potential
We want to see the company build and operate a pilot plant to show that it can produce lithium carbonate from its project efficiently.
Milestones
Pilot plant construction commenced
Pilot plant construction completed
Pilot plant operating results
Objective #3: Complete either a definitive feasibility or bankable feasibility study (DFS/BFS)
We want to see the company advance the feasibility studies for its project from where it is now (scoping study) to either a Definitive Feasibility or Bankable Feasibility study level.
Milestones
Feasibility study commencement
Feasibility study completion
Commercialisation risk
Lithium brine projects are highly dependent on different variables like weather, flow rates to surface and the variability of grades in the brines. There is always a risk that PUR’s project doesn't meet the levels required for its project to be operated commercially.
Resource risk
PUR’s ground sits inside an area where another company has already defined a foreign resource of 2.1mt lithium carbonate equivalent. This does not mean PUR will be able to define a resource of its own, there is always a chance that the ground PUR holds is considered uneconomic and no resource estimate is produced.
Market risk
There is always a risk that market sentiment impacts PUR’s ability to raise capital. Given the company is yet to commence producing any cashflows the need to raise capital may weigh on the company’s share price.
Commodity price risk
Lithium is currently trading at all time-highs. There is always a risk that the market interest for lithium decreases and in turn appetite to invest in companies like PUR decreases.
We have been holding a position in PUR for over 2 years now, and after a failed attempt at drilling in the Julimar province we are happy with this new advanced lithium acquisition (pending DD and shareholder approval expected in January 2023).
We participated in the $2M PUR cap raise (December 2022). We have also been following the private Argentinian lithium asset being acquired by PUR since October this year, and also have an interest in this company after participating in a pre-listing capital raise, which will convert to PUR shares post transaction.
It’s very early in PUR’s new project, but as always we may look to de-risk ~20% in the next 12 months in line with our trading policy, if the price materially re-rates on key milestones.
Disclosure: Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd (the Company) and Associated Entities own 25,133,333 PUR shares and 10,000,000 PUR Shares on Trilogy Class B Con Note conversion at the time of publishing. The Company has been engaged by PUR to share our commentary on the progress of our Investment in PUR over time.
Pursuit Minerals Limited (ASX:PUR) is a junior exploration company that is aiming to make a PGE-Nickel-Copper discovery in Western Australia.
PUR’s Warrior project is also located just 50km north-east of Chalice mining’s discovery in the new minerals province known as the Julimar Complex. PUR is aiming to replicate Chalice Minings success.
✅ Initial Investment: @ 1.3c
✅ Top Slice
✅ Free Carry
✅ Initial Investment: @ 6.9c
✅ Free Carry
✅ Take Profit
✅ Price increases 300% from initial entry
✅ Price increases 500% from initial entry
🔲 Price increases 1000% from initial entry
✅ 12 Month Capital Gain Discount
🔲 Hold remaining Position for next 2+ years
Jan 03, 2023
Announcement
Investment Memo:
PUR-IM1
This morning our lithium Investment Pursuit Minerals (ASX: PUR) confirmed that two important conditions to the acquisition of its lithium brine project had been met.
A few weeks back PUR first announced its plans to acquire an advanced lithium asset in Argentina.
This asset sits in South America's 'lithium triangle', a region home to ~50% of the world's lithium production and multi-billion dollar lithium majors like SQM and Albemarle.
At the time of the announcement (14th December 2022), the deal was contingent on an $8M capital raise and the acquisition of the ground that makes up the project - today, PUR confirmed that both these conditions had been met.
After this, Trilogy (the company that PUR is acquiring) holds the first four out of five tenements that it has under option.
The capital raise was done by issuing Trilogy class B notes, all of which convert into PUR shares at 1.2c per share after PUR has officially completed the deal.
These shares are all expected to come to market later this month after PUR shareholders have approved the transaction.
We note that after the deal is completed PUR will have ~2.56BN shares on issue, as a result we think that the share price could "churn" or move sideways until at least the completion of the deal.
We touched on all of the share issuances that are still to come in our PUR launch note.
After today's announcement the remaining conditions for the deal are as follows:
PUR confirmed today that shareholder approvals will be sought in early February this year.
To see all of the reasons why we Invested in PUR, what we want to see the company achieve this year as well as the key risks to our Investment thesis check out our launch note here - PUR - Now a $31M advanced stage lithium stock
Sep 20, 2022
Macro: Commodities
Readers who follow our Investment Portfolios will know that we have been making strategic Investments in commodities that have made critical minerals lists for the EU, USA, Japan, India and Australia.
These minerals are considered critical to the digitisation and decarbonisation macro thematic and include lithium, graphite, cobalt, nickel and PGE’s, to name a few.
Over the weekend, the following speech from the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, gave a speech announcing that the EU would look to pass a “European Critical Minerals Act”.
The aim is to avoid the position Europe finds itself in with oil and gas, where it relies on a single trading partner like Russia.
The act would see the EU put in place:
All of this bodes well for our Investments across commodities identified as “critical minerals” giving these projects strategic importance on the world stage.
To see a list of all the critical minerals in the Australian Critical Minerals strategy document, check out the following link.
Here is a snippet from that speech:
Jul 22, 2022
Macro: Commodities
Spanning three days on the pristine Sunshine Coast of Queensland, the Noosa Mining Investor Conference kicked off its 12th year on Wednesday. Attracting a diverse and large spread of corporates, brokers, retail and institutional investors, this year’s event featured over 60 companies presenting and over 1,000 people in attendance, all hosted within the coastal town's Peppers Resort.
At the event, we caught up with a number of executives from our Investment companies (including AKN, AOU, BPM and PFE) as well as companies of interest, either as potential additions to one of our Portfolios, or to gain expert insight to macro and regional headwinds impacting the markets.
The conference is held in the ideal location to mix work with pleasure, and meet a host of CEOs of ASX juniors. Each day ends with a short ‘business at the bar’ session that quickly morphs into talking tactics about where to eat and drink. On Thursday and Friday nights, many head to the Noosa Surf Club for its networking sessions, enjoying its glassed indoor area and open deck to the beach.
We look forward to providing updates on companies we met with down the road.
Jul 15, 2022
Macro: Commodities
China plans to make up to US$1.1 trillion in financing available for infrastructure spending, which we think will increase commodity demand. Read the following Bloomberg article for details.
Read the full article here.
Below are our key takeaways:
The Bloomberg article touches on the impacts of China’s COVID induced lockdowns on the domestic economy.
With economic growth tipped to slow, the Chinese government is getting ready to lean on fiscal stimulus through infrastructure investment to spur economic growth.
We think this type of fiscal stimulus is likely to become a common theme in China and the West, with macro themes like decarbonisation requiring massive CAPEX.
This infrastructure spending forms part of our “commodities supercycle” investment thesis, where we see increased fiscal stimulus and CAPEX investment spurring higher demand for commodities already facing supply shortages.
Jul 15, 2022
Announcement
Our junior exploration Investment, Pursuit Minerals (ASX:PUR) established an At-the-Market Facility (ATM) yesterday with Alpha Investment Partners for up to $5M.
The funding facility is basically a line of financing available to PUR that the company can tap at its discretion.
If PUR decides to use any of the $5M, then it will simply undertake a placement with Alpha Investment Partners based on a reference share price.
The key terms for the facility are as follows:
The key takeaway for us is that PUR now has even more cash available to it if it needs it.
We think this should allow it to quickly ramp up drilling activities should they find anything of value in the upcoming assays (late August) from their Commando gold project in WA.
PUR had over $6.9M in cash at the end of the March quarter so we don't expect the company to need to tap the facility unless there is a compelling reason to spend a large sum of money.
As a result, we think PUR (currently capped at ~$16M) is in a pretty enviable position as a junior explorer, at a time in the market when raising cash is hard for small companies.
What’s next for PUR?
Assay results from the company’s 5,500m AC drilling campaign at its Commando gold project in WA (late August).
Jul 08, 2022
Macro: Commodities
The following Bloomberg article highlights China’s plan to spend up to US$220 billion to spur economic growth through infrastructure spending.
All of this new infrastructure will require more commodities.
Read the full article here.
Below are our key takeaways:
For over two years, we have been writing about an upcoming commodities supercycle brought about by infrastructure spending, following decades of underinvestment in the “real economy”.
All this investment in the “real economy” requires raw materials, which is why we think the macro backdrop for commodities over the next decade is strong.
The Bloomberg article highlights the readiness of the Chinese government to lean on fiscal stimulus to spur economic growth at a time when the Chinese economy is slowing down.
Generally, governments would try to respond to slowdowns in economic growth by cutting interest rates. With this tool exhausted after the COVID pandemic, we think infrastructure spending will become the new policy of choice for governments worldwide.
Again, this infrastructure spending will increase demand for commodities which we expect will take commodity prices higher.
Jul 08, 2022
Macro: Commodities
The following Bloomberg article showcases the moves major carmaker Volkswagen is making in the batteries industry.
Read the full article here.
Below are our key takeaways:
The news is just another sign that downstream investment in battery supply chains is showing no signs of slowing down.
VW is one of the world's largest carmakers and is heavily investing in downstream production capacity. It expects this part of its business to generate over €20 billion in revenues by the end of the decade.
This is a situation where investment in midstream/downstream (manufacturing/battery industry) is far ahead of upstream investment (mining), this leads to the supply/demand imbalances for the raw materials required to produce batteries only becoming worse.
The imbalance comes from the timing of these mega projects. Building a downstream / midstream facility could take 1-4 years whereas it takes around 7 years on average to bring a new resource discovery into the production stage.
As a result, we think that raw materials prices will remain high for at least the next decade whilst the mining industry catches up to demand.
Jun 17, 2022
Announcement
General: Exploration
Our exploration Investment Pursuit Minerals (ASX:PUR) has commenced a 5,500m AC drilling program on the four new gold prospects discovered by recent auger sampling at its Commando Gold Project.
The 156 hole program of AC drill traverses over the recently announced auger geochemical and Bottom of Hole (BOH) gold anomalies is expected to take approximately two weeks to complete (a late June finish). PUR expects to receive assay results in late August, after which it will plan additional RC or diamond drilling.
The company managed to locate a rig offering competitive drill rates at relatively short notice so that the program could start on time.
PUR anticipates that the program will identify new areas for follow up drilling in H2 2022.
We're currently putting together an Investment Memo for PUR outlining why we continued to hold, the objectives we want to see the company achieve, risks involved, and our Investment plan.
May 31, 2022
Announcement
Pursuit Minerals (ASX:PUR) was up as much as 28% this morning after announcing the discovery of four new prospects and a number of new gold anomalies at its Commando Project.
Commando, which PUR acquired in December 2021, is a portfolio of highly prospective exploration tenements adjacent to multi-million ounce gold deposits, 38 km north from Kalgoorlie in WA.
PUR today reported on the results of the first geochemical sampling program ever done across this tenement package.
The company reported very high levels of anomalism which it considers very encouraging and highly significant. The results provide PUR with new quality targets for its upcoming AC drilling program at the project.
What’s next?
PUR’s exploration team is now:
Apr 06, 2022
Announcement
This morning our junior exploration investment Pursuit Minerals (ASX:PUR) confirmed that air core drilling at its Warrior project in WA had commenced.
The drilling program comes less than 1 week after the company put together a ~700m x 250m target area where copper/gold anomalies were found during a previous round of sampling. We covered this in a previous Quick Take which can be viewed here.
The announcement last week detailing the new copper/gold anomalies seems to have caught the markets interest with the share price moving from ~2c per share to now trade just below 4c per share.
Our initial investment in PUR was made in December 2020, and was largely based around the company’s nearology to Chalice Mining’s multi billion dollar Julimar discovery. These new gold/copper targets come as a complete surprise to us so we haven't set any expectations for the upcoming drilling program.
PUR are using an air core drill rig so we don't expect to see a new copper/gold discovery being made with this round of drilling but if the company can put together some decent intercepts and find enough mineralisation to warrant follow up drilling then the project could become a lot more interesting.
PUR expects to have the assays back in ~June of this year.
Apr 04, 2022
Last Friday we saw PUR release some sampling results from its PGE-nickel-copper project in WA that sits close to Chalice Mining’s Julimar Project.
PUR has now put together a ~700m x 250m gold anomaly and has secured an air core drilling rig that will be used to test this anomaly later this month.
We first announced our investment in PUR in December 2020 hoping to see the company replicate the success Chalice had with its Julimar Project. The gold anomalies are unexpected at this project so we will be watching closely to see what comes of the aircore drilling program later this month.
With the broader market looking relatively strong of late, we suspect the unexpected news from PUR was the reason for the buying over the last two trading days.
At this stage, the auger samples are still far too early to tell if PUR are onto something, but the aircore drilling program should shed some light on what the company has come across.
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